VIDEO: Pre-election Political Roundtable

Featuring a panel of Debra J. Saunders, Josh Richman, and Dr. Tammy Frisby.

And They Wonder Why Voters Are Confused

Well, some voters are simply confused in all aspects of their life. But look at the headlines above from today's front page of the Huffington Post, and you'll see why even voters who pay attention to the news and think about it can still be confused.

On the left, "National Tracking Polls Show Romney Uptick," while on the right, "Romney Still Surging? Polls Say No."

So he's no longer surging, but his polls are on the upswing. Clear as mud? Welcome to Internet news. The Land that Editors Forgot.

Vote, Votes, Voting, and Voters

Early voting for the 2012 general election has already started, and I intend to partake as soon as I receive my voting packet in the mail. I'm a big believer in voting, and I'm also a believer in discounting complaints from nonvoters who complain about politics.

Below (you can click on the image to enlarge, or view it on page four of the digital version of the entire magazine) is my editorial from the October/November 2012 issue of The Commonwealth, the members' magazine of The Commonwealth Club of California.

Naturally, one would guess that I'd prefer to have people vote only if they agreed with me on candidates and issues. But in reality, I want every eligible person to vote. Those who vote for different candidates might be making the wrong decision, but at least I'll give them credit for voting their consciences and not just being post-election whiners.

Vote.

(click to enlarge)

All Is Lost

Well, this is a gobsmacker.

Wisconsin had the absolute worst job record of all 50 states for the past 12 months; but according to a poll of voters in that state, they're supporting Republican Gov. Scott Walker because they think he's the better job creator. He's got a 7-point advantage over Democrat Tom Barrett (up from 6 points a few days ago).

Considering the $30 million in recall campaign funds Gov. Walker has pulled in (especially from well-heeled out-of-state friends), this makes me think as goes Wisconsin, so goes America.

Why You Should Vote. Every Election

Over at California Forward, writer Joe Mathews has posted a note on the blog explaining that he won't be voting in this election because regardless of who wins in November, the state of California won't get the systemic governance reform that it needs.

Now, I agree that California needs reform. It needs redistricting reform (which voters wisely supported last election, only to have to defend it in this election). It needs budget reform, taxation reform, criminal justice reform, referendum reform, and on and on. But I think Mathews is horribly wrong to think we're more likely to get them if we don't do our civic duty in the election.

Here's the comment I left on his blog post:

This reminds me of the late editor of The Progressive magazine, Erwin Knoll, who before his death in 1994 would write a syndicated op-ed column each election season telling people he wasn't going to vote because the choices on the ballot were too similar. I thought he was irresponsible then, and I think Mr. Mathews is irresponsible today.

A republic is not about perfection or even sometimes the good. It's just what we've got, and to choose not to participate in an election should mean that the rest of us don't have to listen to a word of political commentary from you until the next time we put things up for a vote.

Just as Mr. Knoll was wrong – really? no difference between Walter Mondale and Ronald Reagan? – so too is Mr. Mathews. He writes, "Not voting is a vote for trashing that system, and starting over." Seriously? Are you 13? Not voting is a decision to let other people run the system, and they're hardly likely to do it in a way that's more to your liking. There are plenty of people and organizations who are happy to have you not vote, and it's not because they agree with your politics. It's because then they get to run things.

So if the Democrats just didn't deliver for you this year, you will not be sending them a message by not voting. You will be letting the Republicans do even worse next year.

Life in a republic is not about getting everything you want. It's about having to convince people and compromise and continuing to work for what you want. I wanted Hillary Clinton to be president; she didn't win; I moved on. I want Barack Obama to be stronger on consumer protection and gay rights; he hasn't been, but I think he's working toward being better on both fronts, and if the GOP grabs power again, both of those issues will go in exactly the opposite direction.

Vote. Even if you're a Republican, vote. If you're a Democrat, be sure to vote and tell your friends. Do not let the Joe Mathews and the Erwin Knolls of the world make it out to be cool or fashionable to skip voting. Because when your health care depends on the outcome of an election, when your small business depends on financial industry regulation, when your education and your employment and your immigration and your privacy and your pocketbook all stand to be negatively affected if the other side wins, then Mathews and Knoll are the absolutely last people to whom you should be listening.

Dear Rafael Mandelman: I'll Consider Voting for You When ...

On my way into San Francisco's Glen Park BART station (that's one of our subway lines, for those of you out-of-towners), I snapped this photo of one of the trash bins at the station. On the other side of the entrance, the same sign was on another trash bin. Around the entrance were several supporters of this candidate, Rafael Mandelman, who is running to become our supervisor (the equivalent of an alderman, and with all the weirdness that entails in most city councils).

I know that following the law seems to be considered an optional pursuit in San Francisco by many people, but am I really being too stuck up to be annoyed that a candidate plasters his material on public property? Or did BART (or the city – whoever owns the trash bins) approve of this use? If so, it's a form of endorsement of the candidate, and it's wrong. If BART or the city did not approve of it, then it's abuse of public property, and it's wrong.

Considering all of the troubles we have with people who get into public office (at all levels, in all locations, from all parties and ideologies) and forget about the line between their personal aggrandizement and the public good, we should hold people to decent standards when they're running for local office. So, Mr. Mandelman, you might be a perfectly fine candidate in many ways, but I'll consider voting for you when you display proper respect for the people you intend to serve. Get your signs off my – our – public property.

Harumph.

Iranian Students Organize Online

On Irandokht, an online English-language (with some Farsi [I think] sections) Iranian women's magazine, there is a posting by Iranian students seeking support for their online petition condemning the violence against protesters in Iran. To read their message and sign their petition, see the Irandokht forum here, and scroll down to the subhead "Condemn Violence."

Iranians Going "Basiji Hunting"?

The Washington Note quotes from an e-mail written by an Iranian:

By the way, two nights ago I went out to see a few things ... as the general crowds spread into their homes militia style Mousavi supporters were out on the streets 'Basiji hunting'.

Their resolve is no less than these thugs -- they after hunting them down. They use their phones, their childhood friends, their intimate knowledge of their districts and neighbours to plan their attacks -- they're organised and they're supported by their community so they have little fear. They create the havoc they're after, ambush the thugs, use their Cocktail Molotovs, disperse and re-assemble elsewhere and then start again - and the door of every house is open to them as safe harbour -- they're community-connected.

The Basiji's are not.

These are not the students in the dorms, they're the street young -- they know the ways better than most thugs - and these young, a surprising number of them girls, are becoming more agile in their ways as each night passes on.

Also, with $10K every local police station lock can be broken and guns taken out...the police too are crowd friendly...for sure put a gun in their hands and these young become a serious counter-balance to the Basij...call them 10% of 18-22 year olds - that makes circa 10 million around the country versus max 4 million Basijis.

That excerpt comes from a longer article that tries to predict the likely scenarios for the outcome in Iran. (It's not optimistic that a peaceful solution will result.) I, on the other hand, would love it to end peacefully, but my definition of a successful conclusion to this is pretty much total surrender by Khamenei and the other hard-line leaders there. If the above excerpt is true, then it's truly amazing that the government's control has broken down so much that people are proactively attacking the militias.

(The usual caveat has to be placed on anything that is an anonymous source quoted on a web site you've never heard of and re-quoted on another blog: It might be all science fiction. I hope it's not.)

Poll Watching

Should McCain supporters have hope or continue stocking up on canned goods? Should Obama supporters start fearing an electoral collapse or should they loosen up and enjoy an impending landslide? If you are trying to figure out what is what in these waning days of the seemingly never-ending presidential campaign, well, good luck.

Here's what CNN tells us today:

With five days until Election Day, there are signs the presidential race may be tightening, according to a new CNN poll of polls.

According to an average of several recent surveys, Barack Obama's lead over John McCain is down to 5 points nationwide, 49-44 percent — a gap that is 3 points less than it was earlier this week, and nearly half what the margin was one week ago.

But here's what CBS tells us today:

With less than one week until Election Day, Barack Obama maintains a clear lead over John McCain in the presidential race, a new CBS News/New York Times poll suggests. The Democratic nominee now leads his Republican rival by 11 percentage points, 52 percent to 41 percent, among likely voters nationwide.

A small percentage of these voters could still switch sides: The figures include both firm supporters of each candidate and those who lean towards one or the other but have not fully committed. These so-called leaners, however, make up less than 10 percent of each candidate's support, a sign that significant movement in the campaign's final days is not likely. Just five percent of the likely voters surveyed remain completely undecided.

But, wha -- huh? How can two leading media polls be so far off, both in results and in interpretation?

Argh.

New Hampshire Primary Night

Hooray.

Campaign Finance Reform Sanity